A complete walk-through of arbitrage, +EV, middles, low holds, racing, bonus conversion, account management, and bankroll — built specifically for Australian bookmakers. Reads top-to-bottom or jump in via the table of contents.
1. Introduction to Advantage Betting
Welcome to Krok Odds — Australia's dedicated platform for advantage betting analytics. This guide covers everything you need to go from complete beginner to confident, systematic bettor using every tool in the Krok Odds platform.
Advantage betting is not gambling in the traditional sense. Traditional gamblers accept the bookmaker's built-in margin and hope to get lucky. Advantage bettors use data, speed, and mathematics to identify situations where the odds offered are genuinely in their favour — then bet accordingly, repeatedly, over time.
This guide covers all major tools and strategies available on Krok Odds, with a specific focus on Australian bookmakers and markets.
What Is the Bookmaker's Margin?
Every bookmaker builds a profit margin into their odds — also called the "overround" or "vig". This is why if you add up the implied probabilities of all outcomes in a market, they total more than 100%.
| Outcome | Bookmaker Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Team A Win | 2.10 | 47.6% |
| Team B Win | 1.85 | 54.1% |
| Total | — | 101.7% (1.7% margin) |
That 1.7% is what the bookmaker extracts from every dollar bet. Advantage betting is about finding situations where this margin works in your favour, or disappears entirely.
Is Advantage Betting Legal in Australia?
Yes. Placing bets on sports events is entirely legal for adults (18+) in Australia. There is no law against shopping for the best odds, using betting analytics tools, or systematically seeking value. You are simply a customer making informed purchasing decisions.
What bookmakers CAN do is limit or close accounts they identify as advantage bettors. This is within their rights as private businesses. Account management — minimising your footprint while maximising your edge — is a key skill covered in Section 10 of this guide.
💡 Key point
Krok Odds is an analytics tool, not a gambling service. All betting decisions and actions are entirely yours.
2. Arbitrage Betting
Arbitrage ("arb") betting is the practice of placing bets on all possible outcomes of an event across different bookmakers, in proportions that guarantee a profit regardless of the result. It works because different bookmakers have different opinions on the same event — and sometimes, the combined odds across two or more books exceed 100% in your favour.
How Arbitrage Works
A genuine arbitrage opportunity exists when the sum of the inverse of all available odds (the "arb percentage") falls below 100%. The lower it is, the higher your guaranteed profit margin.
Example: AFL — Collingwood vs Melbourne
| Outcome | Book | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Collingwood Win | Sportsbet | 2.40 |
| Melbourne Win | TAB | 1.95 |
| Arb % | 1/2.40 + 1/1.95 = | 41.7% + 51.3% = 93.0% |
| Profit margin | 100% - 93.0% = | 7.0% guaranteed |
In this example, if you staked $500 total across both sides in the correct proportions, you would return approximately $537 regardless of which team won — a guaranteed $37 profit.
Stake Calculation
Krok Odds calculates the optimal stake split for you automatically. For reference, here is how it works:
Formula
Your Stake on Outcome A = Total Stake × (1/Odds A) / Arb%
Collingwood stake: $500 × (1/2.40) / 0.93 = $500 × 0.417 / 0.93 = $224
Melbourne stake: $500 × (1/1.95) / 0.93 = $500 × 0.513 / 0.93 = $276
Return if Collingwood wins: $224 × 2.40 = $537.60
Return if Melbourne wins: $276 × 1.95 = $538.20
Guaranteed profit: ~$37 on $500 staked (7.4%)
💡 Tip
Always use the Krok Odds stake calculator. Manual rounding can turn a profitable arb into a losing one if the stakes are off by even a few dollars.
Markets Covered by the Krok Odds Arb Scanner
- Head to Head (H2H) — win/loss markets across all major sports
- Spreads & Handicaps — line betting across NRL, AFL, NBA, EPL and more
- Totals (Over/Under) — points, goals, games totals
- Player Props — player performance markets (points, assists, goals, disposals)
- Racing — Win and Place markets across thoroughbred, harness, and greyhound racing
Using the Krok Odds Arbitrage Scanner
- Log in to Krok Odds and navigate to the Arbitrage Scanner.
- Opportunities are displayed in real time, sorted by profit margin (highest first) by default.
- Each row shows: the event, the two (or more) bookmakers, the odds on each side, the arb percentage, and the profit margin.
- Click any opportunity to open the Stake Calculator. Enter your total stake and the tool will calculate exactly how much to place on each side.
- Place both bets as quickly as possible — odds move fast. Open both bookmaker tabs before placing either bet.
- Log the completed bets in the Bet Tracker for ROI monitoring.
⚠️ Warning
Odds can change between the time Krok Odds detects an opportunity and when you place your bets. Always confirm the odds on the bookmaker site before confirming any bet. If one leg has moved unfavourably, recalculate before proceeding.
2b. AFL & NRL Arbitrage — The Australian Edge
AFL and NRL are the two most profitable sports for Australian arbitrage bettors. These leagues generate the highest volume of arb opportunities because every major AU bookmaker prices them independently, creating frequent discrepancies across 100+ books.
AFL Arbitrage
AFL H2H (head-to-head) and line markets are the bread and butter of Australian arb betting. Key advantages:
- Deep liquidity — every AU book offers AFL markets with high limits, meaning your bets are accepted at full stake
- 18 teams, 9 games per round — 9 H2H markets per round with spreads, totals, and player props on top
- Prop markets — disposals, kicks, marks, and goals for every named player. Bookmakers price AFL props less accurately than team markets
- Thursday-Monday coverage — AFL rounds span multiple days, keeping opportunities flowing throughout the week
💡 AFL Arb Tip
The best AFL arbs tend to appear on Thursday and Friday evenings when books adjust their lines after late team changes. Monitor the Krok Odds dashboard closely after teams are announced (usually Tuesday-Wednesday) for the sharpest line movements.
NRL Arbitrage
NRL markets are slightly less liquid than AFL but offer consistently strong arb and value betting opportunities:
- Try scorer markets — first/anytime try scorer markets are priced independently by each book and frequently diverge
- Total points — NRL overs/unders create frequent middle opportunities due to the scoring structure
- Player props — tackles, run metres, and try scorer props are widely available and often mispriced
- State of Origin — Origin matches create some of the largest arb opportunities of the year due to extreme market interest and recreational money
💡 NRL Arb Tip
NRL arbs on try scorer markets can persist for several minutes because bookmakers are slower to adjust player-level markets. These are excellent for beginners practising their execution speed.
The Australian Sports Calendar for Arb Bettors
Understanding the seasonal cycle helps you plan your bankroll and account management:
- March–September: AFL and NRL in full season — peak arb season for Australian sports
- October–March: A-League, BBL cricket, and international cricket — fewer domestic arbs but international markets (NBA, EPL, NFL) fill the gap
- Year-round: Horse racing runs daily across all three codes, providing consistent opportunities regardless of season
- Spring Carnival (October-November): Melbourne Cup week and associated racing generates massive liquidity and some of the best racing arbs of the year
3. Positive EV (+EV) Betting
Positive Expected Value (+EV) betting is the foundation of all long-term advantage betting. Unlike arbitrage, +EV betting does not guarantee a profit on every individual bet — but it does guarantee a profit over a large enough sample of bets, provided you are consistently identifying genuine edge.
What Is Expected Value?
Expected Value (EV) is the average outcome you can expect from a bet if it were placed an infinite number of times. A positive EV bet is one where the odds offered are higher than the true probability of the outcome.
EV Formula
EV = (Probability of Win × Profit) − (Probability of Loss × Stake)
Example: A coin flip paying $2.20 for a $1 stake
True probability: 50% (0.50)
EV per $1: (0.50 × $1.20) − (0.50 × $1.00) = $0.60 − $0.50 = +$0.10
Interpretation: For every $1 bet, you expect to profit $0.10 on average over time
The key is identifying what the "true probability" of an outcome actually is. Krok Odds does this by comparing the bookmaker's odds against a sharp reference line — derived from sharp books and exchanges that have minimal margin — to surface markets where the AU bookmaker is offering above-fair value.
Market EV vs Implied EV
Krok Odds shows two EV metrics for every opportunity:
Market EV
Market EV compares the bookmaker's odds against the sharpest available market price for that outcome — drawn from sharp books, exchanges, and consensus pricing. If a bookmaker is offering 2.10 on an outcome that the sharp market prices at 1.90, that difference is your edge.
| Value | Implied probability | |
|---|---|---|
| Bookmaker odds (Neds) | 2.10 | 47.6% |
| Sharp market price | 1.90 | 52.6% |
| True probability est. | 52.6% | Used as fair value reference |
| EV per $1 staked | (0.526 × $1.10) − (0.474 × $1.00) | +$0.084 or +8.4% edge |
Implied EV
Implied EV uses the no-vig (margin-removed) price from the same bookmaker's market as the reference for true probability. It assumes the bookmaker's own market is roughly efficient, then identifies individual lines that are mispriced relative to their own book.
This is particularly useful for player props and niche markets where a bookmaker may have less expertise and misprice individual outcomes within a market.
💡 Which to trust?
Market EV is generally the more reliable signal, especially for popular sports. Implied EV is better for props and niche markets where fewer reference prices exist.
How to Use the +EV Finder
- Navigate to the +EV Finder in the Krok Odds dashboard.
- Filter by sport, market type, or minimum EV% using the filter bar.
- Each opportunity shows the bookmaker, the market, the available odds, the fair value odds, and the estimated EV%.
- Focus on opportunities with EV above 3–5% — below this threshold, variance will dominate in the short term.
- Apply a consistent stake size (flat staking or Kelly fraction — see below) across all +EV bets.
- Track all bets in the Bet Tracker. +EV betting requires volume — results over fewer than 200–300 bets are not statistically meaningful.
Kelly Criterion — Sizing Your +EV Bets
The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula for sizing bets that maximises long-run growth while avoiding ruin. It tells you what fraction of your bankroll to bet based on your edge and the odds.
Kelly Formula
f = (bp - q) / b
Where: b = decimal odds − 1 (net odds), p = estimated probability of winning, q = 1 − p (probability of losing)
Example: Odds 2.10, true probability 55%
b = 1.10, p = 0.55, q = 0.45
Full Kelly: f = (1.10 × 0.55 − 0.45) / 1.10 = 0.154 → bet 15.4% of bankroll
Quarter Kelly (recommended): 0.154 / 4 = 3.85% of bankroll per bet
💡 Use Quarter Kelly
Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but results in very large swings. Most advantage bettors use Quarter Kelly (25% of the full Kelly fraction) to reduce variance while still growing the bankroll efficiently.
4. Middles Betting
A middle is an opportunity where you can bet both sides of a line market at different numbers — and win both bets if the result lands in the range between those numbers. In the worst case, you lose a small amount on one side (similar to a small arb loss). In the best case, both bets win.
How Middles Work
Middles arise most commonly in totals (over/under) and handicap markets when different bookmakers offer different lines for the same game.
Example: NRL — Total Points
| Market | Bookmaker | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 43.5 points | TAB | 1.90 |
| Under 46.5 points | Bet365 | 1.90 |
| Middle range | 44 or 45 or 46 points | Both bets WIN |
| If result outside range | One win, one loss | Small net loss |
In this example, if the final score totals 44, 45, or 46 points, you collect on both bets. If the result is 43 or fewer, or 47 or more, you win one and lose one — but if the odds on both sides are close to even, that net loss is minimal.
Why Middles Are Valuable
- Asymmetric risk/reward — small downside, large upside
- The middle window can be several points wide in high-scoring sports like basketball
- Harder for bookmakers to detect than traditional arb (you're not covering all outcomes)
- Common in NRL, AFL, NBA, and cricket totals markets
Using the Krok Odds Middles Scanner
- Navigate to the Middles scanner in the dashboard.
- Each opportunity shows the event, both lines, the middle window (how many points/goals wide it is), and the worst-case loss if the middle does not hit.
- Wider middle windows are generally more valuable — a 3-point window in an NRL total is worth more than a 0.5-point window.
- Use the stake calculator to balance both sides. Unlike arb, you do not need to perfectly balance — you can choose to weight towards the side you think is more likely.
- Log the bet pair in the Bet Tracker as a linked middle.
💡 Best sports for middles
NRL and AFL totals, NBA points totals, and cricket runs markets offer the most frequent and widest middle opportunities on Australian books.
5. Player Props Tool
Player prop markets — bets on individual player performance within a game — are the single largest source of soft pricing in modern AU bookmaking. Bookmakers spend 80% of their risk attention on team markets and the remaining 20% across hundreds of player lines, which means props get priced fast, with thinner data, and with bigger margins. That tension is where edge lives.
One NBA night is 12 games × 30+ prop markets per game × 9 books = roughly 3,200 separate prices. No book can sharpen all of them. The +EV bettor finds the 40-60 that drifted off fair value and bets only those.
A player has hit the over on disposals in 16 of his last 20 games (80% hit rate). The bookmaker prices the over at $1.85, implying a 54% probability.
Edge ≈ 80% − 54% = 26 percentage points. Even halving that for sample noise leaves a +13pp edge — a textbook +EV bet, larger than almost any team market will offer all season.
What Are Player Props?
Player props include markets such as:
- AFL: Total disposals, kicks, marks, goals
- NRL: Total tackles, try scorer, run metres
- NBA: Points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers made
- EPL/A-League: Shots on target, goals, assists
- Cricket: Runs scored, wickets taken
Why Props Are Exploitable
Bookmakers spend most of their risk management resources on team-level markets. Player props are often priced by less experienced traders, updated less frequently, and carry larger margins — all of which create more opportunities for advantage bettors.
Additionally, props are less likely to trigger account limiting actions compared to H2H arb, since bookmakers expect casual bettors to speculate on player performance.
Using the Player Props Tool
- Navigate to the Player Props section of the Opportunity Scanner.
- Filter by sport, league, or player name.
- Each opportunity shows the player, the market (e.g. "Over 25.5 disposals"), the bookmaker offering the value, the fair value line, and the estimated edge.
- Cross-reference with recent form, injury news, and matchup data before placing — Krok Odds identifies the mathematical edge, but player availability and game context matter.
- Props arb opportunities are also surfaced in the Arbitrage Scanner when two books have the same prop at divergent odds.
⚠️ Note
Player prop availability varies by bookmaker. Not all AU books offer deep prop markets. Sportsbet, Bet365, and Pointsbet AU tend to have the widest prop coverage.
Historical Performance & Hit Rates
Krok Odds tracks the outcomes of every player prop bet it detects. After games are completed, results are automatically resolved against the actual player statistics. This gives you:
- Hit/miss tracking — see whether each prop opportunity hit or missed after the game
- Historical hit rates — view how often a player goes over or under specific lines based on past games
- Streaks — identify players on hot or cold streaks for specific stat categories
- Result badges — each prop in the table shows a ✅ (hit), ❌ (miss), or ⏳ (pending) badge after the event starts
Click any player in the props table to open the drilldown modal, which shows all available lines, best prices across bookmakers, and historical performance data when available.
💡 Props Performance Tip
A player with a 70%+ hit rate over their last 10 games on a specific stat line, combined with a +EV edge on Krok Odds, represents a high-confidence play. Use historical data to confirm the mathematical edge.
6. Steam Moves
Think of a steam move as a dam leak. When one book tightens its odds, that is normal risk management — somebody big had a punt, the bookie rebalanced. But when three, four, or six books all shorten the same selection within minutes of each other, you are watching coordinated sharp money. The leak is in the dam itself; the market is correcting because the original price was wrong.
Krok Odds detects and surfaces these moves in real time. A steam move is one of the most reliable signals in advantage betting because it is not your model versus the market — it is the smartest bettors in the world telling you where the line was wrong.
$1.85 → $1.86 → $1.88 → $1.90 → $1.92 → $1.94 → $1.95 → $1.96 → $1.98
Steady drift across five books in nine minutes. Bookmakers do not move in lockstep by accident — this is sharp money pushing the line.
What Are Steam Moves?
When one bookmaker adjusts a price, it may simply be internal risk management. But when two or more bookmakers move the same selection in the same direction by a meaningful amount (Krok Odds requires ≥2% movement across ≥2 books simultaneously), it is almost always driven by sharp, informed money — professional bettors or syndicates placing large, correlated bets.
Example: NRL steam move
Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers — Storm Win
| Bookmaker | Before | After | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sportsbet | 1.95 | 1.80 | −7.7% |
| TAB | 1.90 | 1.75 | −7.9% |
| Result | Steam — 2 books shortened simultaneously | ||
Both books shortened Storm in the same direction at roughly the same time. This is a steam move — sharp money came in on Storm.
Why Steam Moves Matter
Sharp bettors are consistently profitable over large samples. When multiple books react to the same sharp action simultaneously, it is a reliable signal that the market is mispriced — and the move shows you which direction the smarter money is going.
- Confirms EV opportunities. If a +EV snap on the Krok Odds scanner is accompanied by a steam move in the same direction, your confidence in that edge increases significantly.
- Informs SGM legs. Steam moves feed directly into the SGM Picks engine — a steamed leg carries higher confidence as a multi component.
- Early warning system. Steam often precedes wider market corrections. Acting quickly on a steamed selection — before lagging books catch up — can lock in value before it disappears.
- Injury and late news signals. Some steam moves are triggered by late team news not yet reflected in all bookmakers. Monitor steam alongside official team announcements.
⚠️ Warning
Not every steam move is actionable. Odds that have already moved significantly may have already corrected, leaving no remaining edge. Always check the current price before acting — the Krok Odds scanner will show the latest detected move, but the opportunity window can be very short.
Using the Steam Moves Feed
- Navigate to Steam Moves in the Krok Odds dashboard.
- Each card shows the event, the steamed selection, how many bookmakers moved, the average move percentage, and how long ago the steam was detected.
- Click any steam card to see the per-bookmaker breakdown of which books moved and by how much.
- Cross-reference with the Arbitrage and +EV scanners — if the steamed outcome also appears there, it is a compounding signal.
- Act quickly on recent steam (under 5 minutes old). Older steam moves have likely been priced in across all books already.
💡 Steam + EV = High confidence
The most powerful signal in Krok Odds is a +EV snap that is simultaneously showing as a steam move. Two or more bookmakers have moved, and at least one lagging book is still offering the old (now mispriced) odds. This is your clearest indicator of genuine, exploitable value.
7. SGM Picks & EV Calculator
Same-game multis are bookmaker catnip. They look fun, the screens are slick, and the payouts dangle the dream of $20 → $400 with three correlated legs. Behind that UX is the highest-margin product on the site. Where a sharp single bet has a 2-5% house edge, a 4-leg SGM typically carries 18-30%. The bookmaker hides this margin by mispricing the correlation between legs — selling you the "discount" of a multi while charging full freight on the dependence.
The honest use of SGMs is therefore not "let's build a fun multi" — it's "let's find SGMs where the bookmaker priced correlation wrong in OUR favour." Krok Odds offers automated SGM Picks (data-backed suggestions) plus a manual EV Calculator so you can price your own combinations against fair value.
- Sharp single H2H: ~4% margin
- 2-leg multi: ~7% margin
- 3-leg SGM: ~13% margin
- 4-leg SGM: ~19% margin
- 5-leg SGM: ~25% margin
Stacking legs without a correlation edge compounds the house take. You need genuine correlation insight to beat this.
How SGM Picks Work
Picks are generated on a schedule by combining signals from across the platform: historical player prop hit rates, market EV edges on individual legs, odds movement, steam moves (when multiple bookmakers move together), and head-to-head consensus from median bookmaker pricing. This is algorithmic and data-driven — not tipster opinion.
Each card shows fair odds and a minimum acceptable price (fair with a buffer). You should only take the multi if the bookmaker's offered SGM odds are at or above that minimum — otherwise the edge implied by our model is not available at their price.
Understanding Pick Signals
- Hit rate (📊) — Historical rate this player has gone over or under this line over recent games.
- +EV edge (💰) — The leg shows positive expected value versus de-vig / consensus pricing from the wider market.
- Steam move (🌊) — Several bookmakers moved on this selection in the same direction around the same time.
- Consensus (🎯) — Typically on H2H: the side favoured by median fair probability across Australian books.
- High probability (📈) — No-vig implied probability for the leg is above 60%.
Risk Tiers Explained
- Safe Play — Fewer legs (typically 2–3), higher implied probabilities per leg, lower combined fair odds, aimed at higher hit frequency.
- Value Play — More legs (often 3–4), balanced risk, moderate combined odds.
- Long Shot — More legs (4–6), includes at least one more speculative leg, higher combined fair odds and lower hit rate but larger potential payout.
How to Use SGM Picks
- Open SGM Hub and select the SGM Picks tab.
- Filter by sport and tier; sort by confidence or kickoff time.
- Read the signal badges on each leg and note the minimum acceptable odds.
- Open the suggested bookmaker's SGM builder, add the same legs (or as close as their market allows).
- Compare their quoted multi price to the minimum — only bet if the quote meets or beats it.
- Use Open EV Calculator on a card to preload matched legs into the calculator when available.
Manual EV Calculator
The EV Calculator tab lets you build your own same-game multi from live player props, enter the bookmaker's offered SGM odds, and compare against fair odds (with an optional correlation penalty). Use it whenever you are constructing a custom multi or double-checking a pick.
8. Racing Tool (AU)
Australian racing — thoroughbred, harness, and greyhound — is one of the most active and liquid betting markets in the world. A Randwick Saturday alone moves more turnover than most NRL rounds. That volume is double-edged: huge price diversity at peak, brutal house edge at the takeout level, and a thicket of products (Win, Place, Each-Way, Top Tote, Best Tote + SP, parimutuel pools) that confuse beginners.
The Krok Odds Racing Tool is designed specifically for Australian punters and covers all three racing codes across every state and territory. The general rule: edge migrates from Saturday metro racing (where bookmakers concentrate their sharpest pricing) to country and provincial meetings where holds are wider and price errors are common.
- Saturday metro thoroughbreds: ~2% +EV hit rate (sharp pricing)
- Midweek provincials: ~6% +EV hit rate
- Country meets: ~12% +EV hit rate
- Country greyhounds: ~18% +EV hit rate
Smaller fields and less-monitored meets carry more pricing errors. Your hourly profit per race is highest off-peak.
Racing Codes Covered
- Thoroughbred — metropolitan, provincial, and country meetings Australia-wide
- Harness — all Australian harness racing meetings
- Greyhounds — all Australian greyhound meetings
Win & Place Arb in Racing
Racing arb works slightly differently from sports arb due to the tote (parimutuel) pools and the combination of fixed odds and tote products available across Australian books.
Krok Odds focuses on fixed odds arb and EV in racing — comparing Win and Place odds across all major AU bookmakers (Sportsbet, TAB, Bet365 AU, Neds, Ladbrokes AU, Unibet AU, BlueBet) to surface opportunities.
💡 Fixed Odds vs Tote
Always compare like with like. Fixed odds arb requires you to use fixed odds on both sides. Never compare a fixed odds price with a tote price — the tote fluctuates and you cannot lock in the return.
Best-Tote and Multi-Tote Products
Some Australian bookmakers offer "Best Tote" or "Top Fluc" products that automatically pay the best available tote price. These products can significantly improve returns but cannot be reliably used as one leg of an arb (since the final price is not known until after the race).
Krok Odds uses fixed-odds comparison only for racing arb identification to ensure the opportunity is calculable before you bet.
Racing Data & Form
The Krok Odds racing tool aggregates data from multiple sources to give you the most complete picture:
- Odds comparison — real-time fixed odds from all major AU bookmakers, updated continuously
- Form data — barrier draws, jockey/trainer, weight, recent form (last 20 starts), and claim data for upcoming races
- Runner statistics — overall, track, distance, track-distance, condition, first-up, and second-up win/place percentages
- Steam moves & drifters — identify runners whose odds are shortening (steamer) or lengthening (drifter) rapidly across the market
Form and statistics are enriched for races within 60 minutes of jump time, ensuring you have the most up-to-date data when it matters most.
Place Market Opportunities
Place markets in Australian racing often carry less sharp pricing than Win markets — particularly in larger fields where bookmakers must price many outcomes. This creates frequent +EV opportunities on Place bets, especially in fields of 10 or more runners where payouts cover the first three or four placings.
Using the Racing Tool
- Navigate to the Racing section in the Krok Odds dashboard.
- Select the race code (thoroughbred, harness, greyhounds) and state or meeting.
- The tool displays Win and Place odds across all integrated AU bookmakers for every runner in real time.
- Arb and +EV opportunities are highlighted automatically. Click any opportunity to open the stake calculator.
- Act quickly — racing markets move fast, particularly in the final 30 minutes before jump time.
⚠️ Late scratchings
If a runner is scratched after you have placed a bet, different bookmakers handle the situation differently. Some refund, others apply a scratching deduction. Always check the bookmaker's rules on late scratchings before placing racing arb bets.
9. Low Holds
Most bookmaker markets are a steep hill — you climb against a 4-8% margin every bet, and your edge has to clear that grade before you make money. Low-hold markets are the gentle slope: the bookmaker has tightened up the margin to compete (or has been outpriced by sharper books), and you face a 1-2% headwind instead of 6%.
Even when there is no arb available, betting on low-hold markets minimises your expected losses on rec-cover bets and amplifies the value of any genuine +EV edge. A 3% edge on a 6% hold market is real but skinny; the same 3% edge on a 1% hold market is dramatically more profitable per dollar staked.
Understanding Hold Percentage
The hold (or overround) is the bookmaker's theoretical profit margin on a market. It is calculated by summing the implied probabilities of all outcomes and subtracting 100%.
Hold Calculation
| Outcome A odds | 2.05 | Implied probability: 48.8% |
| Outcome B odds | 2.00 | Implied probability: 50.0% |
| Total implied | 48.8% + 50.0% = 98.8% | Wait — this is below 100% |
| Hold | 100% - 98.8% = -1.2% | Negative hold = arb opportunity |
A negative hold is an arbitrage. A hold between 0% and 2% is low-hold territory — still highly valuable for +EV bettors. Industry average hold on AU sports markets ranges from 3% to 8%, so anything below 2% is exceptional.
Why Target Low-Hold Markets?
- Even without a guaranteed arb, you are betting in a near-fair market
- Easier to find +EV when the margin to overcome is small
- Less account limiting risk than pure arb — you are betting on value, not covering all outcomes
- Works well as a +EV strategy even without a sharp reference line
Using the Low Holds Filter
- In the Krok Odds Opportunity Scanner, filter by "Low Hold" to surface markets with hold below your chosen threshold.
- Sort by hold percentage to find the tightest markets first.
- Review each market: even if you only bet one side, you are operating close to fair value.
- Combine with the +EV Finder — low-hold markets where one side is also +EV are the sweet spot.
10. Bonus Converter
Most punters treat bonus bets as casino chips — fun money to put on a longshot. That is leaving 70-80% of the offer's value on the table. A disciplined Tier-1 bettor converts every promo offer into hard cash via a hedged bet at a second book, locking in 60-80% of face value regardless of the result. Across a year of multiple accounts, this alone extracts $3,000-$8,000 from welcome bonuses, reload offers, money-back specials, and boost tokens.
The Krok Odds Bonus Converter does the math instantly: enter the bonus amount, the odds you can use it on, and the matching odds at a second book — it tells you exactly how much to lay off and what cash you walk away with regardless of outcome.
- Welcome bonuses (one-off): ~$1,400
- Recurring reload offers: ~$1,800
- Money-back specials: ~$1,400
- Boost tokens: ~$800
- Accumulator insurance: ~$600
- Loyalty rewards: ~$400
~$6,400/year before conversion losses. Realised cash at ~75% conversion = ~$4,800. A separate revenue line on top of any betting edge.
Types of Bonus Offers
- Bonus bets (also called "free bets") — stake is not returned with the win
- Deposit matches — bookmaker matches your deposit up to a certain amount as a bonus bet
- Odds boosts — a specific market boosted to higher-than-normal odds
- Refund offers — stake refunded as a bonus bet if a specific condition is met
Method 1: Arb Conversion (Two Bookmakers)
This is the most common bonus conversion method on Krok Odds. You place the bonus bet on one outcome with the offering bookmaker, and a matching back bet (with your own cash) on the opposite outcome at another bookmaker.
Bonus Arb Example
Bonus bet value: $50 bonus bet (stake not returned)
Place bonus on: Team A @ 3.00 (Neds) — Potential return: $100 (profit only)
Place cash bet on: Team B @ 2.10 (Sportsbet)
Cash stake needed: $50 bonus × 2.00 / 2.10 = $47.62
If Team A wins: Bonus returns $100 profit − $47.62 cash loss = Net: +$52.38
If Team B wins: Cash returns $47.62 × 2.10 = $100 − $47.62 = Net: +$52.38
Conversion rate: $52.38 extracted from $50 bonus (~72% conversion)
The conversion rate (how much real cash you extract from a bonus bet) typically ranges from 60% to 80%, depending on the odds used. Higher odds on both sides generally increase conversion rate but require careful matching.
Method 2: Hedging
Hedging is used when you have already placed a bet (often a bonus bet) and want to lock in a profit or reduce risk before the event concludes. It is also used when a multi-leg accumulator has won several legs and you want to guarantee a return before the final leg.
Hedge Example
Situation: You placed $50 bonus on Team A @ 4.00 — Potential return: $150 profit
Team A has won the first half — now favourites
New odds: Team A 1.60 (Sportsbet)
Hedge bet on Team B: $150 / 2.60 × 1 = $57.69 at Team B @ 2.60 (TAB)
If Team A wins: $150 profit − $57.69 = $92.31 net
If Team B wins: $57.69 × 2.60 − $57.69 = $92.31 net
Result: Guaranteed $92.31 from a free bonus bet
Using the Bonus Converter Tool
- Navigate to the Bonus Converter in the Krok Odds dashboard.
- Select the conversion method: Arb or Hedge.
- Enter the bonus bet value, the odds you are using for the bonus, and the opposing odds available.
- The tool calculates the exact cash stake needed on the opposing side, and shows your guaranteed return and effective conversion rate.
- Place both bets as instructed and log them in the Bet Tracker.
💡 Best odds for conversion
For bonus arb, aim for odds between 2.80 and 4.00 on the bonus side. Too short and conversion rate drops; too long and the cash stake required becomes large relative to your bankroll.
11. Bet Tracker
The Krok Odds Bet Tracker is your complete record of every bet placed, every opportunity taken, and your overall edge over time. Tracking is not optional — it is the foundation of serious advantage betting. Without data, you cannot know if your strategy is working, where your edge is coming from, or when to adjust.
What to Log
- Date and time of bet placement
- Bookmaker used
- Sport, event, and market type
- Odds taken and stake placed
- Bet type (arb leg, +EV, middle, bonus conversion, low hold)
- Outcome (win/loss/void)
- Profit or loss on the bet
- For arb and middles: log all legs as a linked group
Key Metrics to Monitor
| Metric | What It Tells You | Target |
|---|---|---|
| ROI % | Return on investment as a % of total staked | > 0% (positive) |
| CLV (Closing Line Value) | Did you beat the closing odds? Key skill indicator | Consistently positive |
| EV Won vs Actual Won | Are you running above or below expectation? | Converges over 500+ bets |
| Win rate by bet type | Which strategy is performing best? | Varies by type |
| Monthly profit/loss | Overall bankroll trajectory | Upward trend |
| Average odds taken | Are you targeting the right price range? | 1.80 – 3.50 typical |
Closing Line Value (CLV)
Closing Line Value is the single most important metric for evaluating whether you are a genuine advantage bettor. It measures whether the odds you took were higher than the odds available at market close (just before the event started).
If you consistently beat the closing line, you are systematically finding value. If you consistently get worse odds than the closing price, you are chasing steam rather than genuine value.
💡 CLV is the proof
Even if you are running at a loss short-term, consistent positive CLV is evidence that your strategy is sound and results will catch up over time. Negative CLV with positive returns is luck — it will not last.
Using the Bet Tracker
- After placing any bet or bet pair, open the Bet Tracker in the Krok Odds dashboard.
- Select the bet type and enter the details. For arb/middle pairs, use the linked bet feature to group both legs.
- After the event resolves, mark the outcome. The tracker calculates profit/loss automatically.
- Review your dashboard weekly. Look at ROI by strategy, by sport, and by bookmaker.
- Use the insights to double down on your highest-edge opportunities and avoid markets where you are consistently underperforming.
12. Account Management & Staying in the Game
The biggest long-term challenge for any advantage bettor in Australia is not finding opportunities — it is keeping your bookmaker accounts open long enough to exploit them. Australian bookmakers actively identify and limit advantage bettors. This section covers the practical strategies to maximise your account lifespan.
⚠️ Important
No strategy guarantees your accounts will remain unlimited. Bookmakers are private businesses with the right to limit or close accounts. The goal is to extend your account lifespan — not to make yourself invisible indefinitely.
How Bookmakers Detect Advantage Bettors
- Consistently requesting max bets or large stakes on sharp markets
- Placing bets immediately after odds drop ("steaming")
- High win rate on early prices before the market sharpens
- Concentrating bets on a small number of markets or events
- Never placing recreational bets (multi-leg accumulators, popular events)
- Account patterns that match known arb profiles (e.g. always betting one side of a two-way market)
Bet Sizing Strategy
One of the most effective ways to extend account life is to avoid betting the maximum allowable amount consistently. Bookmakers flag accounts that repeatedly request the maximum stake.
- Start with smaller stakes when your account is new — build a betting history first
- Vary your stake sizes — do not always bet round numbers or the same amount
- Avoid always taking the maximum stake on offer
- Gradually increase stakes over time rather than starting large
Bet Timing
When you bet can be as important as what you bet. Bookmakers pay more attention to early market movers and consistent steam chasers.
- Avoid always being first to bet on a newly released line
- Spread your bets throughout the day rather than clustering at market open
- For racing, avoid always betting in the final minutes — mix in some earlier bets
- Do not always bet at exactly the same time each day
The Importance of +EV Over Pure Arb
+EV betting is significantly harder for bookmakers to detect than arbitrage. With arb, you are always on both sides of a market — which is a clear pattern. With +EV, you are simply backing one outcome at odds you believe are generous, which is indistinguishable from recreational betting to most detection systems.
A portfolio approach — primarily +EV betting with selective arb when margins are strong — tends to produce better long-term results because it preserves account access on more books for longer.
Recreational Cover
Placing occasional recreational-style bets can help disguise your advantage betting activity. This does not mean losing money unnecessarily — it means being selective about how your betting history looks:
- Place a small number of multi-leg accumulators (even small stakes) on popular events
- Occasionally bet on mainstream events like State of Origin, AFL Grand Final, Melbourne Cup
- Use the same-game multi products on popular fixtures — these are notoriously house-edge-heavy, but a small occasional stake is worth it for account health
💡 Account health tracker
Krok Odds includes an Account Health Tracker (in beta) that monitors your betting patterns across accounts and flags when your profile may be attracting bookmaker attention. Use it regularly.
Managing a Portfolio of Accounts
The most important principle of long-term advantage betting is account diversity. The more bookmaker accounts you have access to, the more opportunities you can act on and the less you depend on any single book.
- Open accounts at all major AU bookmakers before you need them — it is harder to open new accounts once you have a limiting history
- Prioritise books that are known to be more tolerant of sharp action (Betfair, some international books)
- When an account is limited, do not panic. Move activity to other accounts and continue. Krok Odds monitors all major AU books simultaneously
- Keep records of your limits on each book so you know your maximum stake at each
Betfair & Exchanges
Betfair Australia operates as a betting exchange where you bet against other punters rather than against the bookmaker. Betfair cannot limit or close your account for winning — they take a commission on net winnings instead of building a margin into odds.
For advantage bettors, Betfair is an invaluable resource:
- Use Betfair as a laying platform for arb and bonus conversion hedges
- Betfair odds are often the sharpest reference price available for +EV calculation
- No account limiting risk — your long-term asset as a sharp bettor
- Commission rate (typically 5–6.5% on net winnings on a market) reduces effective odds — factor this into your calculations
13. Bankroll Management
Professional advantage betting requires treating your betting funds as a business investment — not disposable income. Proper bankroll management ensures you can survive the inevitable losing runs and continue betting long enough for your edge to materialise.
Setting Your Starting Bankroll
Your bankroll should be money you can afford to have tied up in this strategy for 6–12 months without needing to access it. It is not money you can afford to lose entirely — but it is money that will experience short-term swings even with a genuine edge.
| Guidance | Amount | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Minimum recommended | $2,000 AUD | Enough to spread across multiple books |
| Comfortable starting point | $5,000 – $10,000 AUD | Allows meaningful stake sizes |
| Max single bet (arb) | 1–3% of bankroll | Limits exposure to any single event |
| Max single bet (+EV) | Quarter Kelly fraction | Typically 1–5% of bankroll |
| Monthly review | Rebased to current bankroll | Adjust stakes as bankroll grows |
Flat Staking vs Kelly Staking
Flat Staking
Bet the same dollar amount on every +EV bet, regardless of the edge size. Simple to implement, low variance, but not mathematically optimal. Good for beginners building confidence and data.
Kelly Staking
Bet a fraction of your bankroll proportional to your edge (see Section 3). Mathematically optimal for bankroll growth, but requires accurate edge estimates. Use Quarter Kelly to reduce variance. Best for experienced advantage bettors with a proven track record of CLV.
Drawdown and Variance
Even with a genuine edge, losing runs are inevitable. The mathematics of advantage betting means that over any short sample of bets, results are dominated by variance rather than edge. Understanding this is critical for staying the course.
Variance Examples at 5% EV Edge
| Bets placed | Expected result | Realistic variance range |
|---|---|---|
| 50 bets | +5% ROI expected | Can easily be -15% to +25% |
| 200 bets | +5% ROI expected | Tighter: -2% to +12% |
| 500 bets | +5% ROI expected | Starting to converge: +2% to +8% |
| 1,000+ bets | +5% ROI expected | Results closely reflect true edge |
This is why sample size is everything in advantage betting. Judging your strategy after 30 bets is meaningless. Commit to tracking at least 300–500 bets before drawing conclusions about your edge.
14. Getting Started with Krok Odds
Here is a practical step-by-step plan for your first two weeks on Krok Odds.
Week 1 — Setup
- Open accounts at all major Australian bookmakers: Sportsbet, TAB, Bet365 AU, Neds, Ladbrokes AU, Pointsbet AU, Unibet AU, and BlueBet. Verify your identity on each (required by Australian law).
- Open a Betfair account. Deposit a small amount and familiarise yourself with the exchange interface.
- Fund each account with a modest amount — enough to cover 2–3 typical stakes. You can add more once you are comfortable.
- Set up Krok Odds alerts on your phone and computer so you receive notifications when opportunities appear.
- Spend the first 3–4 days watching the scanners without placing bets. Get a feel for how quickly opportunities appear and disappear, what profit margins are typical, and which sports have the most activity.
Week 2 — First Bets
- Start with 3–5 small arb bets at modest stakes (e.g. $50–$100 total per arb). Focus on H2H markets in mainstream sports — easiest to execute.
- Log every bet in the Bet Tracker immediately after placing.
- Review each completed bet: Did you get the odds you expected? Was execution smooth? What could you do faster?
- Convert any welcome bonus bets using the Bonus Converter.
- Begin monitoring +EV opportunities alongside arb — start tracking them even if you are not yet betting them.
Recommended Bookmakers for AU Arb Bettors
| Bookmaker | Strengths | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Sportsbet | Largest AU book, deep markets, fast payouts | Most active for arb opps |
| TAB | Racing focus, unique markets, high limits early | Great for racing arb |
| Bet365 AU | Deep props, in-play markets, international sports | Best for props & EV |
| Neds | Competitive H2H odds, frequent promotions | Good bonus conversion |
| Ladbrokes AU | Good AFL/NRL lines, loyalty promotions | Solid secondary book |
| Pointsbet AU | Points betting unique markets, sports focus | Good for middles |
| Unibet AU | European sports coverage, racing markets | Niche arb opportunities |
| BlueBet | Racing focus, often sharper racing lines | Good racing arb partner |
| Betfair AU | Exchange — no limiting, commission-based | Essential long-term tool |
15. Krok Odds — Every Tool on the Site
A comprehensive rundown of every tool, page, and feature on krokodds.com.au — grouped by what you are trying to accomplish. Each entry covers what the tool does, when to use it, and how it ties into the strategies in this guide.
Live Opportunity Scanners
The paid-tier scanners that surface mathematically-priced opportunities in real time across 140+ bookmakers.
- /arbitrage — Cross-book arbitrage scanner. Filter by min margin, sport, AU-only books. ~250ms refresh. Click a row → opens the stake calculator and bet-slip pre-fill.
- /ev-bets — One-sided +EV finder, devigged against the sharpest available book. Sortable by EV%, Kelly fraction, time-to-game.
- /middles — Polarised-line scanner. Shows expected middle-hit % from historical data plus worst-case loss. Best for totals.
- /low-holds — Lists markets across configured sports with combined hold < 2%. Used as devig source and standalone reduced-edge play.
- /player-props — Cross-book player prop builder with last-10 hit rate, season trend, opponent splits, and injury filters per player.
- /odds-screen — Best-price-by-book grid across every sport + market. Configurable filters.
- /compare — Per-event side-by-side: every market at every book with inline arb / +EV / middle detection.
- /gameday — Today/tomorrow overview with hot-prop highlights, steam signals, weather flags, starter confirmations, injury news.
- /sgm-ev — Same-game-multi EV calculator. Builds a multi-leg ticket, returns implied house edge and correlation-adjusted true edge.
- /opportunity-replay — Replay any past day's opportunities to validate execution speed.
- /backtest — Strategy backtester. Historical ROI + CLV per market category.
Racing Tools
- /racing, /racing-odds, /horse-racing — Live fixed prices, Best Tote dividends, exotics, scratchings, BOM 7-day weather forecast layer, promo-eligible races flagged (Top Tote, Best of Three, Best of Three + SP).
- /melbourne-cup, /caulfield-cup, /cox-plate, /the-everest — Cup-day dashboards with form, jockey/trainer splits, last-10 prices, head-to-head form, fixed-vs-tote spread, promo aggregator.
Stats & Analytics
- /stats/leaders — Per-game metric leaderboards across AFL, NRL, NBA, NFL, EPL, A-League, MLB, NHL, NCAAB, NCAAF, BBL.
- /stats/compare — Side-by-side player vs player rolling averages, recent form, splits.
- /stats/team/[sport]/[slug] — Roster, form, home/away/divisional splits, market-specific tendencies, schedule.
- /stats/player/[sport]/[slug] — Career stats, last-10 hit rates, opponent-adjusted projections, injury history, live props at every book.
- /stats/matchup/[sport]/[matchup] — Head-to-head matchup history, form delta, key player matchups, market history.
- /stats/runner/[sport]/[slug] — Per-horse career, win/place rate, recent form, trainer/jockey combo splits, track/distance/condition tendencies.
Tracking, Tips & Account Health
- /tracker — Bet Tracker. Log every bet manually or via 1-tap from scanner rows. Auto-resolves CLV against consensus closing line. ROI by sport / book / market / day-of-week. CSV export.
- /track-record — Site-wide aggregated performance of public +EV picks — transparency layer.
- /sports-hub/[sport] — Curated tips by sport with full reasoning, suggested stake, target book, audited CLV per tipster.
- /account-health — Per-book ledger of recent limit events, withdrawal speed, bonus delivery patterns. Early warning of throttling.
- /alerts — Telegram + email alert rules. Filter by sport, market, min edge %, bookmaker, promo type.
Bonus Conversion & Free Calculators
All free calculators below are usable without an account.
- /bonus-converter — Live bonus-bet conversion engine. Enter bonus value, choose target market, returns optimal hedge stake/book + cash conversion %.
- /arbitrage-calculator — Stake calculator for 2- or 3-way arbs. Returns exact splits + guaranteed profit.
- /bonus-bet-converter — Free SNR bonus → cash calculator (no live odds).
- /dutching-calculator — Stake split across multiple selections to return identical profit per winner.
- /ev-calculator — Enter odds + fair odds + bankroll, returns EV%, full/half/quarter Kelly stake.
- /hedge-calculator — Lock in profit on an in-flight bet by hedging the opposite side.
- /kelly-calculator — Kelly Criterion stake sizer at full / half / quarter Kelly.
- /odds-converter — Decimal ⇄ Fractional ⇄ American ⇄ Implied Probability.
- /parlay-calculator — Multi-leg odds, breakeven hit rate, EV at given confidence.
Developer API & Account
- /api-access, /api-docs, /api-keys, /api-dashboard — Programmatic access to all Krok Odds endpoints (arbs, +EV, low-holds, racing, stats). For quant bettors, syndicates, sportsbook operators.
- /dashboard — Centre hub: latest opportunities, watchlist, tracker P&L, alert status, account-health summary.
- /dashboard/referrals — Referral program — earn credit on referred subscriptions.
- /profile, /settings, /billing — Profile info, notification settings, sport/bookmaker preferences, subscription tier, payment.
Sport Landing Pages & Educational Content
- /afl-odds, /nba-odds, /nrl-odds, etc. — Per-sport landing pages with current week's prices, news, links to relevant scanners.
- /guide, /guides — This guide + topical sub-guides on every strategy and concept.
- /blog — Weekly articles on AU sports, betting strategy, market analysis, promo decoding.
- /glossary — Standalone, searchable glossary of every term used on Krok Odds.
- /learn — Curated playlists of articles + tools for a chosen strategy (arb-only, +EV-only, racing-only, props-only).
- /methodology — Transparency document — how scanners devig, which books are sharp, how CLV is computed, every data source listed.
- /bookmakers — Per-book reviews: promo profile, market coverage, typical hold, account-life expectancy, withdrawal speed.
New tools ship monthly. Krok Odds adds a new scanner / market type / sport every 3–6 weeks. Subscribe to the changelog at /changelog or follow @krokodds on X for ship announcements.
16. Frequently Asked Questions
How much can I realistically make?
This depends on your bankroll, the number of accounts you have access to, how much time you spend, and how long your accounts remain unrestricted. A disciplined bettor with a $5,000 bankroll and accounts at most major AU books could realistically generate $500–$2,000 per month in the early months, declining as accounts are limited. Many serious advantage bettors treat it as a supplementary income stream rather than a primary one.
Will I get banned?
"Banned" is the wrong word — bookmakers cannot ban you legally, but they can limit your maximum stake to very small amounts, which makes your account effectively useless for advantage betting. This will happen eventually on most accounts if you are consistently profitable. The goal is to extend the lifespan of each account using the strategies in Section 10, and to maintain accounts at as many books as possible.
Is my money safe if a bookmaker closes my account?
Yes. If a bookmaker restricts or closes your account, they are required to return all funds in your account balance. This is regulated under Australian law. Always keep your balance at each bookmaker relatively low — only deposit what you need for your upcoming bets.
How fast do opportunities disappear?
It varies. Arb opportunities on major markets (popular AFL/NRL H2H) can disappear in under 60 seconds. Opportunities on niche markets or props can persist for several minutes or longer. The Krok Odds scanner refreshes in under 250ms — the bottleneck is always how quickly you can manually place bets, not how quickly we detect them.
Do I need to bet large amounts?
No. The mathematics works at any stake size. A $50 arb with a 5% margin still generates $2.50 guaranteed profit. Small stakes in the beginning are wise — they let you build execution experience without large amounts at risk if something goes wrong (e.g. you misread an opportunity or odds move before you place).
What sports are best for beginners?
AFL and NRL H2H markets are the best starting point for Australian bettors. They are liquid, heavily covered, straightforward to understand, and generate frequent arb and +EV opportunities. NBA and EPL are excellent secondary options. Racing is highly active but requires faster execution and an understanding of racing-specific rules.
How do I set up Telegram alerts?
Go to Settings → Alerts → Connect Telegram. Click the button to open our Telegram bot, press Start, and your account links automatically. You can set a minimum arb threshold (e.g. only alert for arbs above 2%) and pause/resume alerts anytime. Alerts are sent instantly when high-value opportunities are detected.
How does the racing tool work?
The racing tool covers all Australian thoroughbred, harness, and greyhound meetings. It compares fixed-odds prices across 140+ bookmakers to detect arb and value opportunities. The tool also shows steam moves (shortening odds) and drifters (lengthening odds), runner form data, and track/distance statistics. Data refreshes every 90 seconds. Navigate to Racing in the sidebar to get started.
What does the player prop hit/miss badge mean?
After each game completes, Krok Odds automatically resolves every player prop it tracked against the actual box score. The ✅ (hit) means the prop bet would have won, ❌ (miss) means it would have lost, and ⏳ (pending) means the game hasn't finished yet. This lets you track the accuracy of our +EV model over time and builds historical hit-rate data for each player.
What is the Account Health feature?
Account Health lets you track which bookmakers have limited or banned your account. Mark a bookmaker as "limited" or "gubbed" in Settings → Bookmakers, and Krok Odds will automatically deprioritise or hide opportunities from those books. This saves you time by only showing actionable opportunities.
Is there an API?
Yes. Krok Odds offers a REST API with real-time access to arbitrage, +EV, middles, low holds, player props, and racing data. API plans start at the Hobby tier (500 requests/month, arbitrage + low-hold only) and go up to Enterprise (100,000 requests/month). Visit API Documentation for the full reference, or API Access to get your key.
Can I disable specific sports or bookmakers?
Yes. In Settings → Sports, you can toggle off any sport to hide it from all feeds. In Settings → Bookmakers, you can mark bookmakers as limited or gubbed, and they will be deprioritised or excluded from opportunity detection. You can also set a global minimum edge threshold so only opportunities above your chosen percentage are shown.
What bookmakers does Krok Odds cover?
Krok Odds covers all major Australian-licensed bookmakers including Sportsbet, TAB, Bet365, Ladbrokes, Neds, PointsBet, BlueBet, BetRight, BoomBet, TABtouch, Palmerbet, Dabble, Betr, PlayUp, Unibet, and Betfair Exchange. For racing, we also integrate tote-comparison data. Coverage varies by sport — not all bookmakers offer every market.
Are betting winnings taxable in Australia?
For recreational and most advantage bettors, gambling winnings are not assessable income in Australia. The ATO treats betting as a hobby — the same reason losses are not deductible. The line shifts only if you operate something the ATO recognises as a structured business of gambling (organised systems, scale, employees, no other major income source). For typical part-time arbers and +EV bettors, your monthly profit hits the bank tax-free.
Bookmakers themselves pay Point of Consumption Tax (POCT) — that's baked into the margin you already pay. Always check current ATO guidance or a registered tax agent if you are scaling significantly. Read more in our ATO rules explainer for Australian punters.
Why is live (in-play) betting restricted in Australia?
The Interactive Gambling Act 2001 (Cth) prohibits Australian-licensed bookmakers from offering online in-play sports betting. The original policy intent was harm-minimisation around impulsive in-play wagering. The workarounds the law leaves in place:
- Phone betting — most AU bookmakers offer click-to-call in-play betting, where you tap a button in the app to start a phone call and place the bet verbally.
- In-person betting — at a TAB outlet, race course, or licensed venue.
- Race in-play — racing markets are exempt and remain available online during the race.
- Betfair Exchange — the exchange model lets you place and lay in-play bets online because you are betting against other users, not a bookmaker.
For advantage bettors this matters: in-play arb and +EV on sports requires phone bets (slow) or Betfair (commission-heavy). Most of the Krok Odds opportunity surface is pre-game.
What do common betting terms mean — arb, +EV, CLV, gubbed, vig?
A short glossary of the terms you'll see across this guide and the Krok Odds dashboard:
- Arb (arbitrage) — betting all outcomes of an event across different books so total return exceeds total stake regardless of result. Guaranteed profit.
- +EV (positive expected value) — a single bet placed at odds that imply a higher payout than the "fair" (true) probability. Profitable on average, not on every bet.
- CLV (Closing Line Value) — the gap between the odds you took and the final odds at market close. Long-term positive CLV is the strongest signal that you have a real edge.
- Vig / margin / juice / overround — the bookmaker's built-in profit margin, expressed as how much more than 100% the implied probabilities of all outcomes sum to.
- De-vig / no-vig — removing the margin to estimate the bookmaker's "true" price for an outcome. The basis of most +EV models.
- Steam move — multiple bookmakers shortening or drifting a price in the same direction within a short window. Sharp-money signal.
- Gubbed / limited — your account is restricted to tiny stakes (or banned outright) by a bookmaker after they identify you as a winning customer.
- Middle — a bet pair where both legs can win if the result lands inside a specific window (e.g. NRL total 44.5 over @ TAB + 46.5 under @ Sportsbet, both win on 45 or 46).
- Low hold — a market where the combined margin across the best prices is unusually thin (often <2%) — close to break-even no-vig conditions.
- Bonus conversion — turning a stake-not-returned bonus bet into guaranteed cash by hedging against the other side on a separate book.
- Kelly fraction — the mathematically optimal share of bankroll to stake on a +EV bet. Most advantage bettors use 1/4 or 1/8 Kelly to soften variance.
How do I stay disciplined during losing runs?
Variance is the part of advantage betting that quietly destroys more accounts than gubbings ever do. Even a genuine 5% EV edge sits underwater for stretches of 50–100+ bets — and your brain will tell you something is broken long before the maths catches up. Some rules that hold up under pressure:
- Trust CLV, not P&L. If your closing line value is consistently positive, your strategy is working — results will follow. Negative CLV with positive returns is luck and won't last either.
- Fix stakes as a % of bankroll. Re-base monthly. Never up-size after a loss to "chase back".
- Log every bet before placing. The 10 seconds to log is also 10 seconds of friction against tilt bets you wouldn't justify on paper.
- Walk away when tilt shows. Slamming refresh after a bad beat is a bigger leak than any bad line. The opportunities will be there tomorrow.
- Pre-commit to sample size. Decide that you will judge the strategy at 500 bets, not at 30. Then actually wait.
See our drawdown discipline guide and why most punters lose for the maths behind variance and what it costs psychologically.
Good luck, and bet sharp.
The Krok Odds team is here to help. If you have questions, reach out at [email protected].