Analysis

Data-driven breakdowns of AU markets — AFL/NRL pricing, line movement, prop markets, closing line value, and bookmaker margins.

17 articles

Analysis7 min

Why Being Right 70% of the Time Can Still Lose You Money

Our AFL model is right 71% of the time and loses money. Our NRL try scorer model is right 26% of the time and prints profit.

Daniel Pham10 Aug

Analysis

12 min

We Built a Machine Learning Model for Australian Racing — Here's What 233,000 Races Taught Us About Market Efficiency

The betting market knows more than most models give it credit for. We trained on 233K races to find out exactly where the edge lives — and where it doesn't.

James Whittaker10 Aug

Opinion7 min

NRL Player Props Get Sloppy in the Second Half of the Season — Here's What to Do About It

NRL prop markets show wider cross-bookmaker price gaps in the second half of the season. Origin disruption, injury replacements, and slow model adjustments create real value for punters who know where to look.

David Koval29 July

Analysis9 min

Cox Plate & Caulfield Cup: Australian Form Guide for the Lead-Up Races

Caulfield Cup form correlates to Melbourne Cup. Cox Plate form does not. Most AU punters get that backwards.

James Whittaker12 May

Analysis9 min

IPL Betting from Australia: Time Zones, Sharp Markets, and the AU Bookmaker Catch-Up

The IPL has the sharpest T20 close in cricket. AU operators play catch-up. Time-zone alpha exists if you know where to look.

James Whittaker12 May

Analysis8 min

Why Your "Sure Thing" Multi of Four Short-Priced Favourites Is a Mathematical Disaster

Four favourites at $1.20 each combined into a $2.07 multi feels like free money. Run the numbers. It is the opposite of free money.

Tom Rafferty18 Apr

Analysis10 min

The NRL Line Movement Patterns I Watch Before Every Round

NRL lines shorten for a reason. Learning to distinguish sharp money from public money is the difference between riding a steam move and betting into the wrong side of one.

James Whittaker4 Apr

Analysis9 min

Why 98% of Punters Lose: The Cold Math of Sports Betting

A 5% vig per bet becomes a 92% chance of losing over 500 bets. The arithmetic of why almost everyone loses — and what it actually takes to finish in the 2%.

James Whittaker20 Mar

Analysis11 min

The AFL Teams the Market Has Historically Overrated

Some AFL clubs are always priced shorter than they deserve. It's not the bookmakers' fault - it's the weight of public money on popular teams. Here's where the value lives.

Sarah Nguyen25 Feb

Analysis12 min

I Tracked Every Bet For a Year. Here's What CLV Actually Looks Like.

A full year of bet-by-bet closing line value data. The categories that beat the close, the ones that didn't, and the three weeks where I almost quit.

David Koval16 Feb

Analysis10 min

The Economics of Tipping Subscriptions: Why Most Subscribers Lose Money Even With +EV Tips

Even +EV tips don't guarantee subscriber profit. Subscription cost, odds movement, limits, and stake constraints eat the edge — and the maths is brutal.

James Whittaker10 Jan

Analysis11 min

NBA Player Props in Australia: Which Markets Have Value

NBA player props are arguably the sharpest edge available to AU advantage bettors right now. Here's which specific markets offer genuine value and which are priced too tightly.

Sarah Nguyen15 Nov

Analysis10 min

NRL Try Scorer Markets: Anytime vs First Try Scorer (Where the Value Actually Is)

Anytime try scorer is one of the highest-value NRL prop markets. First try scorer is one of the worst. Both look similar at first glance. Here's why one is genuinely beatable and the other is mostly a trap.

Sarah Nguyen6 Nov

Analysis10 min

Esports Betting in Australia: Markets, Bookmakers, and Whether There's Any Value

Esports markets are young, volatile, and structurally different from traditional sports. Where the edge lives — and where it does not.

Daniel Pham18 Oct

Analysis9 min

How Bookmaker Pricing Decisions Directly Affect Your Bottom Line

When a bookmaker shortens a price, the difference goes into their margin — and out of your return. How pricing decisions affect your bottom line, bet by bet.

Tom Rafferty19 Sept

Analysis9 min

The AFL Margin Prediction That Got Everyone Paid (And the One That Didn't)

Market consensus is a good margin tipster on average. On any given match it can be brilliant or badly wrong. Two worked examples show exactly what to expect.

David Koval9 Sept

Analysis12 min

NRL Player Props: Which Markets Are Actually Beatable at AU Bookmakers

Not all NRL player prop markets are equal. Some are genuinely beatable. Some are priced tighter than the H2H. Here is the sport-by-market breakdown.

Sarah Nguyen15 July