Krok Odds Guide
Everything you need to know about arbitrage, +EV, middles, player props, and advantage betting in Australia.
Sports betting arbitrage (or "surebetting") is placing bets on all possible outcomes of an event across different bookmakers in proportions that guarantee a profit regardless of the result. It works because different bookmakers offer different odds on the same event – when the combined implied probabilities fall below 100%, a risk-free profit exists. Typical Australian arb margins are 1–3% on major markets and 3–8% on niche markets. Use the KrokOdds Arbitrage Scanner to find live opportunities, or try our free Arbitrage Calculator to size your stakes.
Positive expected value (+EV) betting means placing wagers where the bookmaker's price implies a lower probability than the event's true probability. If you believe a team has a 55% chance of winning but the bookmaker prices them at $2.00 (implying 50%), you have a +EV bet. Unlike arbitrage, +EV bets are not guaranteed – they profit on average over many bets but can lose individually. The key is using a sharp reference market (like Betfair Exchange or international sharp books) to estimate true probability.
A middle is a betting opportunity where you bet both sides of a spread or total at different bookmakers such that both bets can win – or at worst, one pushes. For example, if Book A has Team A -5.5 and Book B has Team A -4.5, and Team A wins by exactly 5 points, both bets win. Middles are lower probability than arbitrage but offer higher upside when they hit.
Player props (proposition bets) are wagers on individual player performance rather than the game outcome. Common examples include over/under on points scored, rebounds, assists, disposals, or goals. Player props are often priced less accurately than team markets by bookmakers, creating +EV opportunities. The KrokOdds Player Props tool compares lines across 40+ Australian bookmakers and shows EV chips, hit rates, and historical performance data.
A same-game multi (SGM) combines multiple selections from the same event into one bet at enhanced odds. Bookmakers build in a margin on SGMs that is typically higher than individual bets, but when you can identify legs that are independently mispriced, the overall bet can still be +EV. The KrokOdds SGM EV tool analyses individual leg probabilities and flags SGM combinations where the combined price offers value.
Odds comparison involves checking the same market across multiple bookmakers to find the best available price. Even small price differences compound over hundreds of bets. Krok Odds scans 140+ Australian bookmakers in real time and highlights the best price on every market. The difference between the best price and the average price is often 5–15%, which directly impacts your long-term profitability.
Yes. Arbitrage betting is completely legal in Australia. You are placing legitimate bets with licensed Australian bookmakers. There are no laws prohibiting you from backing different outcomes at different bookmakers. However, bookmakers are private businesses and can restrict accounts that consistently profit – which is why tools like account health monitoring, bet rounding, and stake variation are essential for longevity.
For arbitrage and value betting, you want as many accounts as possible to maximise the number of opportunities. The major AU bookmakers include Sportsbet, TAB, Bet365, Ladbrokes, Neds, PointsBet, BlueBet, BetRight, Unibet, TABtouch, Dabble, Betr, BoomBet, PlayUp, and PalmerBet. Betfair Exchange is essential for sharp reference pricing. Pinnacle (international) is the sharpest book and serves as the baseline for fair-odds calculations.
You can start with as little as $500–$1,000 spread across 8–10 bookmaker accounts. Most bookmakers have minimum bets of $1–$2 on major markets. With a $5,000 bankroll, many advantage bettors generate $500–$1,500 per month from arbitrage alone. The key is bankroll management – never risk more than 1–5% of your total bankroll on a single arb, and keep reserves in each bookmaker account to avoid suspicion.
Matched betting uses free bets and promotions offered by bookmakers to guarantee a profit regardless of the outcome. You back an outcome with a free bet, then lay the same outcome on an exchange (like Betfair) to cover all results. The typical profit from a $50 free bet is $35–$45. It is risk-free when done correctly and is a common starting point for advantage bettors in Australia.
Australian bookmakers offer bonus bets as promotions – usually as sign-up incentives or ongoing rewards. A bonus bet lets you place a bet without risking your own money, but you only receive the winnings (not the stake). For example, a $50 bonus bet at $2.00 odds returns $50 profit (not $100). To extract maximum value, use bonus bets on selections with higher odds ($3.00–$6.00 range). The KrokOdds Bonus Bet Converter calculator shows you the optimal strategy.
The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula that determines the optimal bet size to maximise long-term bankroll growth. It calculates the ideal percentage of your bankroll to wager based on the edge (difference between true probability and bookmaker odds) and the odds offered. Bet a fraction of the Kelly amount (typically 25–50%) to reduce variance. Use the KrokOdds Kelly Calculator to compute optimal stakes.
Track every bet: date, event, market, bookmaker, stake, odds, result, and profit/loss. Calculate your ROI (return on investment) as total profit divided by total staked. More importantly, track Closing Line Value (CLV) – whether your bets beat the closing line. Positive CLV over 100+ bets is the strongest indicator of a genuine edge. The Krok Odds bet tracker records all of this automatically.
Closing Line Value measures whether you consistently bet at better odds than the final "closing" odds just before an event starts. If you bet a team at $2.10 and they close at $1.95, you have positive CLV. Over hundreds of bets, positive CLV is the most reliable predictor of long-term profitability – even more than actual results in the short term. The Krok Odds bet tracker captures CLV automatically for every logged bet.
Bookmaker account restrictions ("gubbing") are the biggest practical risk in advantage betting. To extend your account lifespan: vary your bet sizes, place occasional recreational bets on popular markets, don't always bet the maximum stake, take advantage of loyalty offers, avoid always betting on the "soft" side of an arb, maintain balances rather than immediately withdrawing, and spread your volume across many accounts.
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