Closing Line Value (CLV) — The Only Honest Edge Metric
You can't prove a +EV strategy works from win/loss alone — variance is too heavy. CLV measures whether you're consistently beating the market's eventual price.
Updated · 6 min read
Key takeaways
- CLV = (your_odds / closing_odds) − 1, expressed as a percentage.
- A bettor who averages +2% CLV is almost certainly profitable in the long run.
- CLV converges far faster than P&L — 100 bets of CLV data is roughly equivalent to 1,000 bets of P&L for confidence.
- The international sharp closing line is the gold-standard CLV reference. Betfair Exchange SP is the secondary reference.
- CLV is the single best metric to monitor before tweaking a model or strategy.
What is closing line value?
When a market closes (kicks off or jumps), the closing price reflects all available information. If you consistently bet at prices better than the close, you're consistently in front of the market — i.e. you have an edge.
CLV is the percentage advantage of the price you took versus the closing price. It works for any decimal-odds market.
The CLV formula
CLV% = (your_odds / closing_odds) − 1) × 100 Example: you backed Roosters @ $2.10 closing price was $1.90 CLV = (2.10 / 1.90) − 1 = 0.1053 = +10.53%
Why CLV matters more than win rate
Imagine two bettors. Both backed 100 bets at $2.00 average odds.
- Bettor A averaged +3% CLV and went 48–52 (loss of $4 net).
- Bettor B averaged −1% CLV and went 52–48 (profit of $4 net).
Over the next 1,000 bets, Bettor A will almost certainly be profitable and Bettor B will almost certainly be losing. Variance dominates short-term P&L; CLV reflects the underlying edge.
How to track CLV in AU markets
CLV requires logging two prices for every bet: the price you took, and the closing price at the same bookmaker (or a sharp reference like the sharp-line baseline / Betfair SP).
Practical CLV tracking
- Record the closing price at the book you bet — not just the sharp closing price.
- Also record the sharp-line close as a "true line" CLV reference.
- Aggregate CLV monthly, weighted by stake (a 5% CLV $10 bet matters less than a 5% CLV $200 bet).
- Track separately by sport and market type — your edge may differ across markets.
CLV thresholds
Rough benchmarks for AU bettors:
- Average CLV below 0% — your "edge" is variance. Stop sizing up.
- Average CLV 0–1% — break-even territory. Insufficient to overcome book restrictions.
- Average CLV 1–3% — sustainable +EV in mainstream AU markets.
- Average CLV 3–6% — strong edge, expect heavy book restrictions over time.
- Average CLV >6% — likely either a niche-market specialist or measurement error.
FAQ
How many bets do I need for CLV to be meaningful?
Roughly 50–100 bets to detect a 2%+ CLV signal with reasonable confidence. Compare with P&L, which typically needs 500–1,000 bets to disentangle skill from variance at the same edge level.
Which closing price should I use?
For Australian markets, the international sharp closing devigged line is the gold standard. Betfair Exchange starting price (BSP) is the next best — adjust for commission. Avoid using a soft AU book's close as the reference.
Can I have positive CLV and still lose money?
Short-term yes, long-term very rarely. If you're averaging +3% CLV across 200 bets and still losing money, check for systematic measurement errors (timestamp lag, stake-weighting bugs, settlement mistakes) before doubting CLV itself.
Does Krok Odds publish CLV stats for its signals?
Yes. Every +EV signal we publish is post-event compared against the sharp closing line. Aggregate CLV is visible on the methodology and homepage track record. We don't hand-pick the signals shown.