So I spent the last few weeks backtesting a bunch of betting models across AFL, NRL, tennis, and baseball. Thousands of historical games, tens of thousands of bets. And I found something that kind of broke my brain a little.
Being right most of the time can still lose you money. And being right barely any of the time can make you a fortune.
OK so check this out
I built an AFL model that picks the right winner 71% of the time. That sounds insane right? Nope. It loses money. -14.3% ROI to be exact.
Meanwhile our NRL anytime try scorer model is right about 1 in 4. Twenty-six percent. That sounds terrible. But it makes +67% ROI.
| What We Tested | Accuracy | Profit / Loss |
|---|---|---|
| AFL match predictions | 71.1% | -14.3% |
| NRL match predictions | 61.1% | -36.2% |
| NRL try scorer props |
