Thoroughbred, harness and greyhound racing — Spring Carnival strategy, Betfair Exchange, BSP, exotics, and arbitrage between bookmakers and the exchange.
6 articles
The betting market knows more than most models give it credit for. We trained on 233K races to find out exactly where the edge lives — and where it doesn't.
The Melbourne Cup is the only day of the year when half of Australia bets. The other 364 days are when sharp punters earn from the half that does not.
Caulfield Cup form correlates to Melbourne Cup. Cox Plate form does not. Most AU punters get that backwards.
AU exotics carry 18–30% takeout but pool overlays appear on Cup Day, Cox Plate, and any race with rec-money concentration. The maths is gettable.
Greyhound markets are smaller, faster, and softer than thoroughbreds. The same form-and-pace edges work, with less rec-money distortion to fight.
Betfair Starting Price is one of the most under-utilised products in Australian racing. The maths says it consistently beats corporate fixed-odds SP. Here's why, and how to use it.
